ReplacedbyAI

When does AI take
your job?

A live countdown for each occupation, estimated from how much of the job's work current AI can already do. It's a provocation built on real research, not a prophecy.

How the countdown is computed

Each occupation gets an exposure score from 0 to 100%: our editorial estimate of the share of its task mix that AI systems can perform, informed by the studies below. The target date is then Oct 2026 + 45 years × (1 − exposure)1.6. Highly exposed jobs land in the next year or two; physical, high-trust jobs land in the 2060s. The curve is anchored to McKinsey's estimate that about half of today's work activities could be automated between 2030 and 2060.

"Replaced" here means most of the job's tasks can be automated, not that every worker is gone. Historically, exposure has reshaped jobs far more often than it has erased them. Regulation, cost, liability and public preference all slow things down, and none of them is modelled.

The "2013 estimate" is the Frey & Osborne probability of computerisation. It's shown for contrast: it rated creative and knowledge work as safe, which generative AI has reversed.

Sources